Sergey Pryakhin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sergey Pryakhin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.81x the positional average in the league (1306 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 64
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 20.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.1M vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1306 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 21 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1302
- Opponent strength
- 1362
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €649k – €2.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -44% to +73%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1306 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | CM | 9 | 677 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1362 | 1279 | 0.56 |
| 2025/26 | FK Baltika | Premier Liga | AM | 13 | 629 | 23% | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 1341 | 1326 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | FK Baltika | Premier Liga | AM | 18 | 714 | 26% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.40 | 1339 | 1187 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 5 | 222 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 6 | 212 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivier Thill Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Ramon Pascal Lundqvist Eredivisie · 2021 | 24 | €750k | €700k | flat |
| Erik Falkenburg Eredivisie · 2013 | 25 | €850k | €500k | fell |
| Charles Vanhoutte Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 24 | €800k | €4.5M | rose |
| João Teixeira Liga Portugal · 2018 | 24 | €900k | €325k | fell |
| Luka Ilic Eredivisie · 2021 | 22 | €950k | €2.5M | rose |
| Aleksey Mironov Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Evariste Ngolok Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 25 | €600k | €900k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2026 | Baltika | Akhmat Grozny | €800k | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | CSKA Moscow II | Baltika | €60k | €350k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Baltika | CSKA Moscow II | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | CSKA Moscow II | Baltika | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Kairat Moscow | CSKA Moscow II | Free / loan | €250k |
| 6 Jul 2021 | CSKA Moscow II | Kairat Moscow | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Mar 2019 | CSKA U17 | CSKA Moscow II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.