Alexsandro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alexsandro's performance-implied value at EUR 3.8M-10.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.8M-18.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.2M-16.0M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 76th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €13.8M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 510 (17% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1547
- Opponent strength
- 1433
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.2M – €16.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 72 pts; relative output down 28% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -53% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 510 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 9 | 510 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1433 | 1547 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 30 | 2700 | 88% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1437 | 1594 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 29 | 2218 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1466 | 1552 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 21 | 1610 | 47% | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 1408 | 1555 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | LOSC Lille | 2 | 118 | 0 | 0 | 1628 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 10 | 900 | 0 | 1 | 1660 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1597 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1518 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalbert Serie A · 2018 | 25 | €12.0M | €9.5M | fell |
| Kaan Ayhan Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €6.0M | €3.7M | fell |
| Yuto Nagatomo Serie A · 2015 | 29 | €7.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Dodô Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €17.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Tony Jantschke Bundesliga · 2016 | 26 | €7.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Salvatore Bocchetti Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €14.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Álvaro Domínguez Bundesliga · 2016 | 27 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Ricardo Rodríguez Eredivisie · 2020 | 28 | €5.5M | €3.4M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Chaves | Lille | €2.0M | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Amora FC | Chaves | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 24 Aug 2020 | Praiense | Amora FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Resende U20 | Praiense | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Flamengo U17 | Resende U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.