
Sabit Abdulai
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sabit Abdulai's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.10x the positional average in the league (1174 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 70
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 19.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €513k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1174 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 19 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1277
- Opponent strength
- 1351
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €398k – €986k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -49% (IQR -56% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1174 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Alverca | Liga Portugal | DM | 17 | 1174 | 38% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 1351 | 1277 | 0.58 |
| 2020/21 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CM | 3 | 58 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1723 | 1471 | 1.10 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samy Kehli Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 27 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Lerin Duarte Eredivisie · 2017 | 27 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Rai Vloet Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €800k | €350k | fell |
| João Pedro Liga Portugal · 2019 | 26 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Stijn De Smet Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 28 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Adriano Castanheira Liga Portugal · 2020 | 27 | €475k | €250k | fell |
| Mikkel Duelund Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €700k | €300k | fell |
| Jefferson Liga Portugal · 2022 | 28 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2025 | Botafogo-SP | Alverca | Unknown | €200k |
| 21 Aug 2024 | Getafe | Botafogo-SP | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Real Murcia | Getafe | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Getafe | Real Murcia | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Jan 2024 | CD Lugo | Getafe | Free / loan | €200k |
| 6 Jul 2023 | Getafe | CD Lugo | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Ponferradina | Getafe | Free / loan | €200k |
| 8 Aug 2022 | Getafe | Ponferradina | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Getafe CF B | Getafe | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Extremadura | Getafe CF B | €500k | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Getafe CF B | Extremadura | Free / loan | €150k |
| 19 Aug 2020 | Extremadura | Getafe CF B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Extremadura B | Extremadura | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Unknown | Extremadura B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Extremadura B | Unknown | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 14 Jul 2018 | Unknown | Extremadura B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.