Sabit Abdulai

27 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also CM) · Ghana
FC Alverca · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€700k
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€244k – €853k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€446k – €1.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€398k – €986k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€407k – €881k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€244k – €853k
Model value (performance-implied)€446k – €1.1M
Projected value (24 months)€398k – €986k
Dashed line: current market value (€700k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Sabit Abdulai's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.10x the positional average in the league (1174 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 70

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average19.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.1 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €513k vs market €700k
Expected appreciationLow-11% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €700k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1174 (38% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.08
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.14
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
19 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1277
Opponent strength
1351
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€398k – €986k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -49% (IQR -56% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1174 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
58 (MID)
Relative output kept
72%–151%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC AlvercaLiga PortugalDM17117438%010.080.14135112770.58
2020/21Getafe CFLaligaCM3582%000.000.36172314711.10

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2020/21Copa Del ReyGetafe CF19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Samy Kehli
Jupiler Pro League · 2018
27€600k€300kfell
Lerin Duarte
Eredivisie · 2017
27€800k€1.0Mrose
Rai Vloet
Premier Liga · 2023
28€800k€350kfell
João Pedro
Liga Portugal · 2019
26€700k€700kflat
Stijn De Smet
Jupiler Pro League · 2013
28€800k€800kflat
Adriano Castanheira
Liga Portugal · 2020
27€475k€250kfell
Mikkel Duelund
Eredivisie · 2023
26€700k€300kfell
Jefferson
Liga Portugal · 2022
28€1.0M€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
2 Aug 2025Botafogo-SPAlvercaUnknown€200k
21 Aug 2024GetafeBotafogo-SPFree / loan€200k
30 Jun 2024Real MurciaGetafeFree / loan€200k
1 Feb 2024GetafeReal MurciaFree / loan€200k
31 Jan 2024CD LugoGetafeFree / loan€200k
6 Jul 2023GetafeCD LugoFree / loan€200k
30 Jun 2023PonferradinaGetafeFree / loan€200k
8 Aug 2022GetafePonferradinaFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2022Getafe CF BGetafeUnknown€150k
1 Jul 2021ExtremaduraGetafe CF B€500k€150k
30 Jun 2021Getafe CF BExtremaduraFree / loan€150k
19 Aug 2020ExtremaduraGetafe CF BFree / loanData unavailable
1 Aug 2020Extremadura BExtremaduraUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2019UnknownExtremadura BUnknownData unavailable
30 Jun 2019Extremadura BUnknownFree / loanData unavailable
14 Jul 2018UnknownExtremadura BFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.