Martin Vitík
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Martin Vitík's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-8.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.7M-19.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.9M-22.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €13.6M vs market €13.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1324 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1523
- Opponent strength
- 1454
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.9M – €22.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -1% (IQR -21% to +41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1324 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | CB | 19 | 1324 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1454 | 1523 | 0.93 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 10 | 657 | 0 | 0 | 1508 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AC Sparta Prague | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1695 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AC Sparta Prague | 5 | 397 | 0 | 0 | 1421 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattia De Sciglio Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €7.5M | €8.5M | flat |
| Marash Kumbulla Serie A · 2022 | 22 | €16.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Duje Caleta-Car Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Natan Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €12.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Matija Nastasić Bundesliga · 2015 | 22 | €14.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Flavius Daniliuc Ligue 1 · 2022 | 21 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Caleb Okoli Serie A · 2023 | 22 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Aihen Muñoz Laliga · 2022 | 25 | €6.0M | €8.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jul 2025 | Sparta Prague | Bologna | €11.0M | €11.0M |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Sparta U19 | Sparta Prague | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sparta U17 | Sparta U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sparta Yth. | Sparta U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 18 Aug 2017 | Tempo Prag Yth. | Sparta Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 27 Jul 2016 | Kral. Dvur Yth. | Tempo Prag Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.