Natan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Natan's performance-implied value at EUR 9.7M-25.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 19.4M-35.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.2M-36.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 84.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €26.1M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2810 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1549
- Opponent strength
- 1499
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.2M – €36.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 19 pts; relative output down 74% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -36% to +31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 33 | 2810 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1499 | 1549 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 31 | 2171 | 63% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1480 | 1555 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CB | 14 | 955 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1500 | 1569 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 9 | 765 | 0 | 1 | 1480 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1284 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 6 | 451 | 0 | 1 | 1618 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dani Vivian Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Nikola Milenković Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €15.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Konstantinos Manolas Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €17.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Juan Jesus Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €11.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Yeray Álvarez Laliga · 2020 | 25 | €24.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Ricardo Rodríguez Serie A · 2018 | 26 | €15.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Matija Nastasić Bundesliga · 2018 | 25 | €17.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Gianluca Mancini Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €21.0M | €25.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Napoli | Real Betis | €9.0M | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Real Betis | Napoli | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 15 Aug 2024 | Napoli | Real Betis | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 7 Aug 2023 | RB Bragantino | Napoli | €9.5M | €5.5M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Flamengo | RB Bragantino | €3.5M | €3.5M |
| 31 Dec 2021 | RB Bragantino | Flamengo | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 26 Mar 2021 | Flamengo | RB Bragantino | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Aug 2020 | Flamengo U20 | Flamengo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.