Adam Karabec
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adam Karabec's performance-implied value at EUR 3.4M-14.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.6M-12.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.8M-15.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.46x the positional average in the league (925 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.0M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 47% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 925 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 21)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1554
- Opponent strength
- 1446
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 47%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.8M – €15.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -59% to +129%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 925 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | AM | 21 | 925 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 1446 | 1554 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 9 | 474 | 2 | 3 | 1449 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luca Pellegrini Bundesliga · 2023 | 24 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| James Léa Siliki Ligue 1 · 2020 | 24 | €4.8M | €3.0M | fell |
| Eliot Matazo Ligue 1 · 2023 | 21 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Matteo Ruggeri Serie A · 2023 | 21 | €4.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Alessandro Murgia Serie A · 2018 | 22 | €6.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Lucien Agoumé Laliga · 2024 | 22 | €6.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Andy Diouf Ligue 1 · 2024 | 21 | €9.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Mohamed Fares Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €5.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Lyon | Sparta Prague | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 12 Aug 2025 | Sparta Prague | Lyon | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Hamburg | Sparta Prague | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 4 Jul 2024 | Sparta Prague | Hamburg | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 May 2020 | Sparta Prague B | Sparta Prague | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Sparta U19 | Sparta Prague B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sparta U17 | Sparta U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sparta Yth. | Sparta U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 7 Aug 2015 | Bohemians Yth. | Sparta Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.