Matteo Ruggeri
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matteo Ruggeri's performance-implied value at EUR 12.3M-26.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.5M-37.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.0M-37.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 11
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 83th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €30.3M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1775 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1619
- Opponent strength
- 1468
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.0M – €37.5M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; role change LM -> LB; relative output up 41% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +41% (IQR -36% to +54%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1775 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | LB | 26 | 1775 | 52% | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 1468 | 1619 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | LM | 30 | 1749 | 51% | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 1489 | 1679 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | LM | 34 | 2467 | 72% | 0 | 5 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 1480 | 1709 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | LM | 15 | 825 | 24% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1396 | 1556 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | US Salernitana 1919 | Serie A | LB | 14 | 675 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1478 | 1283 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | LM | 6 | 207 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1548 | 1673 | 0.90 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 15 | 1208 | 0 | 3 | 1678 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 422 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1747 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 6 | 298 | 0 | 0 | 1699 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Super Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1881 |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Atalanta BC | 1 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1833 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Atalanta BC | 10 | 873 | 2 | 1 | 1662 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 4 | 318 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | US Salernitana 1919 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1712 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malick Thiaw Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €25.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Odilon Kossounou Bundesliga · 2023 | 22 | €18.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Fikayo Tomori Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €28.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Merih Demiral Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €20.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Juan Foyth Laliga · 2023 | 25 | €25.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Lukas Klostermann Bundesliga · 2022 | 26 | €18.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Igor Zubeldia Laliga · 2022 | 25 | €15.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Marc Cucurella Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €25.0M | €50.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Atalanta | Atlético | €17.0M | €16.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Salernitana | Atalanta | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 27 Jul 2021 | Atalanta | Salernitana | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Atalanta U19 | Atalanta | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Atalanta U17 | Atalanta U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.