Yusuf Özdemir
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yusuf Özdemir's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.34x the positional average in the league (907 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 14th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €2.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 907 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1287
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €3.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 53 pts; relative output up 48% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -43% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 907 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | LM | 11 | 907 | 30% | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 1287 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | LM | 33 | 2667 | 82% | 5 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.20 | 1295 | 1247 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | LM | 34 | 2475 | 72% | 2 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.27 | 1273 | 1313 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | LM | 25 | 1656 | 51% | 2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.28 | 1290 | 1261 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | DM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1179 | 1260 | 0.37 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Campbell Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €900k | €1.2M | rose |
| Ali Crawford Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 27 | €700k | €550k | fell |
| Amir Hadziahmetovic Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €6.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Simon Tibbling Superliga · 2020 | 26 | €1.6M | €700k | fell |
| Siebe Schrijvers Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Jakob Ankersen Superliga · 2015 | 25 | €1.4M | €1.0M | fell |
| Nwankwo Obiora Liga Portugal · 2016 | 25 | €1.0M | €350k | fell |
| Mike Tresor Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €3.0M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2022 | Inegölspor | Alanyaspor | Free / loan | €125k |
| 27 Jan 2022 | Alanyaspor | Inegölspor | Free / loan | €100k |
| 5 Jul 2021 | Alanyaspor U19 | Alanyaspor | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Alanyaspor Yth | Alanyaspor U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 6 Sept 2017 | Güngören Jgd. | Alanyaspor Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.