Léo Realpe
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Léo Realpe's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-2.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.1M-7.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.9M-7.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 39th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.0M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1697 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1316
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.9M – €7.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 41 pts; team strength up (+73 Elo); relative output up 96% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -36% to +9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1697 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | CB | 24 | 1697 | 55% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 1316 | 1406 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | CB | 5 | 450 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1314 | 1333 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Mammana Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €3.0M | €4.5M | rose |
| Tin Jedvaj Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Rúben Vinagre Liga Portugal · 2021 | 22 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Racine Coly Liga Portugal · 2020 | 25 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Hidde ter Avest Eredivisie · 2021 | 24 | €2.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Edgaras Utkus Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 24 | €2.5M | €1.6M | fell |
| Ilya Samoshnikov Premier Liga · 2021 | 24 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Lucas Fasson Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €3.5M | €5.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | RB Bragantino | Famalicão | €3.0M | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Famalicão | RB Bragantino | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 2 Sept 2024 | RB Bragantino | Famalicão | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 20 Jan 2020 | Independiente | RB Bragantino | €900k | €700k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Independiente B | Independiente | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | IDV U20 | Independiente B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.