Tristan Gooijer
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tristan Gooijer's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 70
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 4.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 30% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1371 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1186
- Opponent strength
- 1296
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 30%
- Resale range (24m)
- €774k – €2.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -44% to +52%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1371 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | RB | 23 | 1371 | 45% | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 1296 | 1186 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | CB | 1 | 26 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1354 | 1265 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RB | 9 | 572 | 19% | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 1356 | 1439 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1427 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilfried Kanon Eredivisie · 2015 | 22 | €1.3M | €1.3M | flat |
| Viktor Aleksandrov Premier Liga · 2023 | 21 | €900k | €1.2M | rose |
| Miguel Rodrigues Super League 1 · 2017 | 24 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Formose Mendy Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 22 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Mimeirhel Benita Eredivisie · 2024 | 21 | €850k | €500k | fell |
| Robin Østrøm Superliga · 2024 | 22 | €600k | €2.0M | rose |
| Arif Kocaman Super Lig · 2023 | 20 | €800k | €1.8M | rose |
| Giannis Christopoulos Super League 1 · 2022 | 22 | €600k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | PEC Zwolle | Ajax U21 | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 16 Jul 2024 | Ajax U21 | PEC Zwolle | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Ajax U18 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Almere City FC | Ajax Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | VVF Almere Jgd | Almere City FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.