Abel Bretones
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Abel Bretones's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-6.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-4.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-5.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 71
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 56.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.5M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1619 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1427
- Opponent strength
- 1487
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €5.0M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 33% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -72% to +100%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1619 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | LB | 28 | 1619 | 47% | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 1487 | 1427 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | LB | 35 | 2068 | 60% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1487 | 1484 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 2 | 128 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 4 | 283 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Iglesias Laliga · 2024 | 26 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Rafael Tolói Serie A · 2016 | 26 | €4.5M | €11.0M | rose |
| Alejandro Gálvez Bundesliga · 2015 | 26 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Aleandro Rosi Serie A · 2013 | 26 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Iago Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Lorenzo De Silvestri Serie A · 2013 | 25 | €3.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Mihailo Ristic Ligue 1 · 2022 | 27 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Óscar Gil Laliga · 2022 | 24 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2024 | Real Oviedo | CA Osasuna | €2.8M | €1.8M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Oviedo Vetusta | Real Oviedo | Unknown | €400k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | UP Langreo | Oviedo Vetusta | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | UP Langreo B | UP Langreo | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Langreo U19 | UP Langreo B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.