Soumaïla Coulibaly
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Soumaïla Coulibaly's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-5.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.6M-8.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-10.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 42
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.8M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 17% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1339 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1407
- Opponent strength
- 1473
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 17%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.8M – €10.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -46% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1339 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CB | 16 | 1339 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1473 | 1407 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CB | 7 | 437 | 14% | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 1380 | 1472 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 17 | 1364 | 51% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1396 | 1492 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1406 | 1691 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 635 | 0 | 0 | 1676 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Royal Antwerp FC | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1649 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Royal Antwerp FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1435 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1440 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruan Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €4.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Yvann Maçon Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €4.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Juan Cabal Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €3.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Nicolas Cozza Ligue 1 · 2021 | 22 | €3.8M | €3.5M | flat |
| Matteo Lovato Serie A · 2021 | 21 | €7.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Patrick Burner Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Giangiacomo Magnani Serie A · 2021 | 26 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Saidy Janko Ligue 1 · 2018 | 23 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Stade Brestois | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 4 Oct 2025 | R. Strasbourg | Stade Brestois | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 7 Jul 2025 | Dortmund | R. Strasbourg | €7.5M | €8.0M |
| 5 Jun 2025 | Stade Brestois | Dortmund | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 29 Aug 2024 | Dortmund | Stade Brestois | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Royal Antwerp | Dortmund | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 11 Aug 2023 | Dortmund | Royal Antwerp | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Paris SG U19 | Dortmund | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Paris SG U17 | Paris SG U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Montfermeil Jgd | Paris SG U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.