Warren Bondo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Warren Bondo's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-7.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.9M-7.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-8.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.55x the positional average in the league (1770 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 34
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.6M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 9% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1770 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1299
- Opponent strength
- 1488
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 9%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.6M – €8.8M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; role change CM -> DM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -45% to -4%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1770 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Cremonese | Serie A | DM | 27 | 1770 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1488 | 1299 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | AC Monza | Serie A | CM | 20 | 1623 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1494 | 1274 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | AC Milan | Serie A | DM | 4 | 162 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1469 | 1625 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | AC Monza | Serie A | CM | 25 | 1471 | 43% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 1471 | 1428 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | AC Monza | Serie A | CM | 4 | 56 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1530 | 1453 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | US Cremonese | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | AC Monza | 2 | 126 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | AC Monza | 1 | 34 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youssef Aït Bennasser Ligue 1 · 2018 | 22 | €7.0M | €4.8M | fell |
| Dion Lopy Laliga · 2024 | 22 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Emmanuel Badu Serie A · 2015 | 25 | €4.7M | €5.0M | flat |
| Afriyie Acquah Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
| Ádám Nagy Serie A · 2017 | 22 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Nicolò Barella Serie A · 2017 | 20 | €5.0M | €36.0M | rose |
| Mohamed Kaba Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Sadio Diallo Ligue 1 · 2013 | 23 | €2.5M | €1.3M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Cremonese | AC Milan | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 12 Aug 2025 | AC Milan | Cremonese | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Monza | AC Milan | €10.5M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Reggina | Monza | Free / loan | €700k |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Monza | Reggina | Free / loan | €700k |
| 28 Jul 2022 | AS Nancy | Monza | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | AS Nancy U19 | AS Nancy | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | AS Nancy U17 | AS Nancy U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Bretigny Yth. | AS Nancy U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Oct 2012 | Châtillon Jgd | Bretigny Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.