Fedde Leysen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fedde Leysen's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-14.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.3M-7.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.5M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 30% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1594 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1570
- Opponent strength
- 1357
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 30%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.3M – €7.4M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 232% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +21% (IQR -32% to +61%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1594 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 23 | 1594 | 59% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 1357 | 1570 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 23 | 1561 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1332 | 1545 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 4 | 337 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1346 | 1589 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 7 | 385 | 0 | 0 | 1674 |
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | Union Saint-Gilloise | 4 | 278 | 0 | 0 | 1380 |
| 2025/26 | Volkswagen Supercup | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1552 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 5 | 249 | 0 | 0 | 1521 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1583 |
| 2024/25 | Volkswagen Supercup | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1557 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1361 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1358 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Denayer Super Lig · 2018 | 23 | €3.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Tomasz Kędziora Premier Liga · 2018 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.8M | rose |
| Marcus Pedersen Eredivisie · 2022 | 22 | €4.5M | €5.5M | rose |
| Marcos Senesi Eredivisie · 2020 | 23 | €7.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Sergiy Kryvtsov Premier Liga · 2014 | 23 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Jere Uronen Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 25 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Víctor Gómez Liga Portugal · 2023 | 23 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Nicolai Boilesen Eredivisie · 2015 | 23 | €2.3M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | PSV U21 | Union SG | Free / loan | €475k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | PSV U18 | PSV U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | PSV U17 | PSV U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | OH Leuven Yth. | PSV U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Westerlo Yth. | OH Leuven Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.