Marcos Senesi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marcos Senesi's performance-implied value at EUR 16.0M-30.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.5M-29.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.0M-18.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 5
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €21.4M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3290 (96% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1643
- Opponent strength
- 1607
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.0M – €18.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 64 pts; team strength up (+60 Elo); relative output up 189% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -64% to +12%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CB | 37 | 3290 | 96% | 0 | 5 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 1607 | 1643 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CB | 17 | 1107 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1567 | 1582 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CB | 31 | 2247 | 66% | 4 | 5 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 1612 | 1496 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CB | 31 | 2495 | 73% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 1580 | 1425 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 32 | 2553 | 83% | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 1337 | 1609 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 1359 | 1457 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 16 | 1395 | 62% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1374 | 1542 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Argentina | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 85 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 253 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 5 | 450 | 0 | 1 | 1343 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 116 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 5 | 432 | 0 | 0 | 1514 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 4 | 345 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 5 | 294 | 0 | 0 | 1572 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Otamendi Laliga · 2015 | 27 | €25.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Lucas Digne Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €30.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Jérémy Mathieu Laliga · 2014 | 31 | €9.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Kieran Trippier Premier League · 2023 | 33 | €11.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| David Luiz Premier League · 2019 | 32 | €20.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Séamus Coleman Premier League · 2019 | 31 | €15.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Serge Aurier Premier League · 2020 | 28 | €16.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Antonio Rüdiger Premier League · 2022 | 29 | €40.0M | €25.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Bournemouth | Tottenham | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 8 Aug 2022 | Feyenoord | Bournemouth | €15.0M | €17.0M |
| 2 Sept 2019 | San Lorenzo | Feyenoord | €7.0M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | San Lorenzo II | San Lorenzo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.