Nazinho
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nazinho's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.0M-9.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-10.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 32
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 38.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.3M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 20% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2074 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1325
- Opponent strength
- 1384
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 20%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.8M – €10.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 34 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -36% to +43%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 24 | 2074 | 77% | 3 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.26 | 1384 | 1325 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 22 | 1168 | 43% | 1 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.27 | 1376 | 1361 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 20 | 1134 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 1386 | 1394 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LM | 3 | 103 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1329 | 1669 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | Cercle Brugge | 6 | 480 | 0 | 4 | 1241 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Cercle Brugge | 4 | 298 | 0 | 0 | 1372 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Cercle Brugge | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1351 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 3 | 118 | 0 | 0 | 1615 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Moura Liga Portugal · 2023 | 24 | €3.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| Georgiy Dzhikiya Premier Liga · 2017 | 24 | €3.5M | €8.5M | rose |
| Harold Moukoudi Ligue 1 · 2021 | 24 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Félix Eboa Eboa Ligue 1 · 2019 | 22 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Alexander Scholz Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Aurélio Buta Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 22 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Dennis Hadzikadunic Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Nicolas Cozza Ligue 1 · 2022 | 23 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Sporting B | Cercle Brugge | €1.0M | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Cercle Brugge | Sporting B | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 6 Sept 2023 | Sporting B | Cercle Brugge | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Sporting | Sporting B | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Sporting B | Sporting | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Sporting CP U23 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Sporting U19 | Sporting CP U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Braga U15 | Sporting U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Unknown | Braga U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Cova Piedade Fo | Unknown | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.