Habib Keïta
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Habib Keïta's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-4.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.73x the positional average in the league (2053 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 18.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.6M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2053 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 19 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1188
- Opponent strength
- 1267
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €4.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -23% to +36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kocaelispor | Super Lig | CM | 28 | 2053 | 67% | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 1267 | 1188 | 0.40 |
| 2023/24 | Clermont Foot 63 | Ligue 1 | CM | 27 | 1274 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.18 | 1497 | 1315 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 18 | 1143 | 37% | 0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 1299 | 1209 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 3 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1629 | 1587 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 1 | 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1362 | 1587 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 3 | 172 | 0 | 0 | 1498 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkan Kutlu Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €3.3M | €4.0M | rose |
| Berat Özdemir Super Lig · 2020 | 22 | €1.8M | €4.7M | rose |
| Kenny Rocha Santos Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 22 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Samuel Bastien Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 26 | €2.2M | €1.1M | fell |
| Obinna Nwobodo Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €1.3M | €2.5M | rose |
| Jakub Kaluzinski Super Lig · 2024 | 22 | €2.1M | €2.5M | flat |
| Kartal Yılmaz Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €2.7M | €2.5M | flat |
| Umut Güneş Super Lig · 2023 | 23 | €2.6M | €2.3M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Clermont Foot | Kocaelispor | €700k | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Kocaelispor | Clermont Foot | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 12 Sept 2025 | Clermont Foot | Kocaelispor | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 4 Jul 2023 | Lyon | Clermont Foot | €1.2M | €650k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | KV Kortrijk | Lyon | Free / loan | €650k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Lyon | KV Kortrijk | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Olymp. Lyon B | Lyon | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 5 Oct 2020 | JMG Bamako | Olymp. Lyon B | €1.0M | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.