Guus Til
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Guus Til's performance-implied value at EUR 10.3M-27.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.1M-15.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.0M-13.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.74x the positional average in the league (2247 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 19
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €10.6M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -46% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2247 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.76
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1606
- Opponent strength
- 1287
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.0M – €13.4M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 26% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -41% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | AM | 29 | 2247 | 73% | 14 | 5 | 0.76 | 0.30 | 1287 | 1606 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | AM | 32 | 2023 | 66% | 10 | 12 | 0.98 | 0.40 | 1286 | 1632 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | AM | 30 | 2039 | 67% | 10 | 6 | 0.71 | 0.27 | 1326 | 1659 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | AM | 30 | 1760 | 58% | 9 | 3 | 0.61 | 0.30 | 1327 | 1649 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 32 | 2590 | 85% | 15 | 3 | 0.63 | 0.40 | 1338 | 1609 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CM | 7 | 120 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1478 | 1492 | 1.06 |
| 2020/21 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 3 | 14 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1319 | 1420 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 18 | 1000 | 37% | 2 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.42 | 1390 | 1392 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | AM | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 12 | 5 | 0.52 | 0.32 | 1353 | 1459 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | AM | 33 | 2830 | 92% | 9 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.33 | 1317 | 1489 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CM | 10 | 317 | 10% | 2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.23 | 1297 | 1369 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 583 | 2 | 3 | 1678 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 129 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Netherlands | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1297 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 769 | 0 | 2 | 1706 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 322 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 1593 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 185 | 0 | 0 | 1606 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 172 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1439 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 436 | 0 | 2 | 1546 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 303 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 155 | 0 | 0 | 1606 |
| 2022/23 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 73 | 3 | 0 | 1749 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 6 | 518 | 6 | 0 | 1367 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 85 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 3 | 184 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 163 | 0 | 1 | 1332 |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 370 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1425 |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 510 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1462 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1359 |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Promes Eredivisie · 2021 | 29 | €15.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| Glen Kamara Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 27 | €7.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Danilo Pereira Liga Portugal · 2020 | 29 | €24.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Vitaliy Buyalskyi Premier Liga · 2021 | 28 | €5.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Lucas Torreira Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Callum McGregor Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 30 | €8.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Oleksandr Karavaev Premier Liga · 2021 | 29 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Claudinho Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2022 | Spartak Moscow | PSV | €3.0M | €7.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Feyenoord | Spartak Moscow | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Spartak Moscow | Feyenoord | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Freiburg | Spartak Moscow | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 3 Sept 2020 | Spartak Moscow | Freiburg | Free / loan | €8.5M |
| 5 Aug 2019 | AZ Alkmaar | Spartak Moscow | €18.0M | €6.0M |
| 22 Sept 2016 | AZ Alkmaar U21 | AZ Alkmaar | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | AZ U19 | AZ Alkmaar U21 | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | AZ U17 | AZ U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | AZ U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Diemen Youth | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.