Kamory Doumbia
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kamory Doumbia's performance-implied value at EUR 3.6M-14.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.8M-13.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.2M-15.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (1766 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 45
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.8M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1766 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.46
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1407
- Opponent strength
- 1455
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.2M – €15.1M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-64 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +42% (IQR -11% to +61%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1766 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | AM | 24 | 1766 | 58% | 5 | 4 | 0.46 | 0.43 | 1455 | 1407 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | AM | 30 | 1319 | 43% | 3 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.37 | 1446 | 1472 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | AM | 25 | 869 | 28% | 6 | 5 | 1.14 | 0.74 | 1458 | 1504 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | AM | 26 | 1153 | 34% | 2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 1414 | 1425 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | AM | 8 | 348 | 10% | 2 | 1 | 0.78 | 0.49 | 1393 | 1417 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Mali | 4 | 185 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | 439 | 0 | 0 | 1652 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Domínguez Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €13.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Seko Fofana Serie A · 2018 | 23 | €9.5M | €9.5M | flat |
| Tommaso Pobega Serie A · 2022 | 23 | €16.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Daniele Baselli Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €6.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Emmanuel Badu Serie A · 2014 | 24 | €3.5M | €5.5M | rose |
| Patrick Osterhage Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €7.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Matheus Henrique Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Marco Benassi Serie A · 2016 | 22 | €5.0M | €13.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2024 | Stade Reims | Stade Brestois | €4.0M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Stade Brestois | Stade Reims | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Stade Reims | Stade Brestois | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Stade Reims B | Stade Reims | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 9 Jul 2021 | JMG Bamako | Stade Reims B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.