David van der Werff
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates David van der Werff's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-3.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-5.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.79x the positional average in the league (2062 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €2.2M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 25% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2062 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1248
- Opponent strength
- 1319
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 25%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.0M – €5.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +39% (IQR +3% to +121%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | RW | 34 | 2062 | 67% | 3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.31 | 1319 | 1248 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | AM | 2 | 18 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 1360 | 1197 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Bassogog Superliga · 2017 | 22 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Konan N’Dri Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 21 | €1.3M | €2.0M | rose |
| Tobias Bech Superliga · 2024 | 22 | €1.5M | €4.5M | rose |
| Bersant Celina Eredivisie · 2017 | 21 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Shapi Suleymanov Super League 1 · 2024 | 25 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Kubilay Kanatsızkuş Super Lig · 2017 | 20 | €2.0M | €650k | fell |
| Nazariy Nych Premier Liga · 2021 | 22 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Dimitrios Limnios Super League 1 · 2017 | 19 | €800k | €3.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Dec 2024 | Groningen U21 | FC Groningen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Groningen U18 | Groningen U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Groningen U17 | Groningen U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Groningen Youth | Groningen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Actief Yth. | Groningen Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.