Thom van Bergen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Thom van Bergen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-1.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-5.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-6.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.92x the positional average in the league (2977 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 29.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.1M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 24% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2977 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.47
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1248
- Opponent strength
- 1309
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 24%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €6.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 16 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -41% to +22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | ST | 34 | 2977 | 97% | 9 | 5 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 1309 | 1248 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | ST | 34 | 2486 | 81% | 5 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.45 | 1321 | 1197 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | RW | 12 | 360 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1389 | 1146 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 1 | 79 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 2 | 34 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Saltykov Premier Liga · 2024 | 20 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Vangelis Pavlidis Eredivisie · 2021 | 23 | €2.5M | €14.0M | rose |
| Carlo Holse Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €3.2M | €7.0M | rose |
| Bojan Miovski Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Kamal Sowah Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 21 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Mike van Duinen Eredivisie · 2013 | 22 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Jelle Vossen Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 25 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Emil Larsen Superliga · 2015 | 24 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2023 | Groningen U21 | FC Groningen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Groningen U18 | Groningen U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Groningen U17 | Groningen U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Groningen Youth | Groningen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.