Santiago Pierotti
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Santiago Pierotti's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-6.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-4.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-6.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.67x the positional average in the league (2616 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 98
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 51.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2616 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1352
- Opponent strength
- 1505
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €6.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; relative output down 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -20% to +15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Lecce | Serie A | RW | 37 | 2616 | 76% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.26 | 1505 | 1352 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | US Lecce | Serie A | RW | 36 | 1940 | 57% | 4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.50 | 1507 | 1351 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | US Lecce | Serie A | RW | 11 | 190 | 6% | 0 | 2 | 0.95 | 0.69 | 1518 | 1359 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 2 | 127 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 2 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Otero Ligue 1 · 2019 | 24 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Manuel Pucciarelli Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Wesley Saïd Ligue 1 · 2019 | 24 | €6.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Lucas Castro Serie A · 2014 | 25 | €3.8M | €5.5M | rose |
| Víctor Ibarbo Serie A · 2014 | 24 | €7.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Genki Haraguchi Bundesliga · 2016 | 25 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Linton Maina Bundesliga · 2024 | 25 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Mehdi Léris Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €2.5M | €2.2M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2024 | Colon | Lecce | €1.2M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | CA Colón U20 | Colon | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.