Eduard Sarapiy

27 yrs · Centre-back · Ukraine
FK Polissya Zhytomyr · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 186 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€2.5M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€983k – €2.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€622k – €2.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.1M – €3.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.9M – €1.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€983k – €2.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€622k – €2.3M
Projected value (24 months)€1.1M – €3.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Eduard Sarapiy's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 69

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage41.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.1 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.8M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationLow-12% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2585 (96% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.21
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.13
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
42 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1290
Opponent strength
1166
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.1M – €3.5M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 34 pts; relative output up 50% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -63% to -24%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FK Polissya ZhytomyrPremier LigaCB30258596%600.210.13116612900.25
2024/25FK Polissya ZhytomyrPremier LigaCB21167262%200.110.08123212360.28
2023/24SC Dnipro-1Premier LigaCB27237488%140.190.12125713350.34
2022/23SC Dnipro-1Premier LigaCB29261097%500.170.10127313980.38

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingFK Polissya Zhytomyr6488001414
2025/26Ukrainian CupFK Polissya Zhytomyr19000—
2024/25Ukrainian CupFK Polissya Zhytomyr328500—
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingFK Polissya Zhytomyr2180001358
2023/24Uefa Europa League QualifyingSC Dnipro-12180001534
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingSC Dnipro-12147101422
2023/24Ukrainian CupSC Dnipro-1112000—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingSC Dnipro-115001463
2022/23Uefa Europa League QualifyingSC Dnipro-1190001464

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Tymur Stetskov
Premier Liga · 2024
26€1.0M€300kfell
Jure Balkovec
Super Lig · 2021
27€2.4M€2.2Mflat
Carles Soria
Super League 1 · 2023
27€800k€450kfell
Yvan Dibango
Premier Liga · 2024
22€1.8M€1.3Mfell
Andriy Ponedelnik
Premier Liga · 2024
27€900k€800kflat
Karim Hafez
Super Lig · 2021
25€1.5M€600kfell
Vasyl Kravets
Premier Liga · 2023
26€1.2M€700kfell
Steven Caulker
Super Lig · 2021
30€4.4M€900kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
12 Jul 2024SC Dnipro-1Polissya€800k€1.5M
1 Jul 2023MetalistSC Dnipro-1Free / loan€1.5M
30 Jun 2023SC Dnipro-1MetalistFree / loan€1.5M
29 Jul 2022MetalistSC Dnipro-1Free / loan€200k
13 Jul 2021MFC MetalurgMetalistFree / loan€100k
1 Aug 2017Tavriya-SkifMFC MetalurgFree / loanData unavailable
1 Aug 2016Dynamo Kyiv U19Tavriya-SkifFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2016Dynamo Kyiv U17Dynamo Kyiv U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.