
Eduard Sarapiy
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Eduard Sarapiy's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 41.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.8M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2585 (96% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1290
- Opponent strength
- 1166
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 34 pts; relative output up 50% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -63% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | Premier Liga | CB | 30 | 2585 | 96% | 6 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.13 | 1166 | 1290 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | Premier Liga | CB | 21 | 1672 | 62% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 1232 | 1236 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | SC Dnipro-1 | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 2374 | 88% | 1 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 1257 | 1335 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | SC Dnipro-1 | Premier Liga | CB | 29 | 2610 | 97% | 5 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 1273 | 1398 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | 6 | 488 | 0 | 0 | 1414 |
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | 3 | 285 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1358 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Dnipro-1 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1534 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SC Dnipro-1 | 2 | 147 | 1 | 0 | 1422 |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | SC Dnipro-1 | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | SC Dnipro-1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1463 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Dnipro-1 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1464 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tymur Stetskov Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Jure Balkovec Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €2.4M | €2.2M | flat |
| Carles Soria Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €800k | €450k | fell |
| Yvan Dibango Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €1.8M | €1.3M | fell |
| Andriy Ponedelnik Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €900k | €800k | flat |
| Karim Hafez Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Vasyl Kravets Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Steven Caulker Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €4.4M | €900k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2024 | SC Dnipro-1 | Polissya | €800k | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Metalist | SC Dnipro-1 | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | SC Dnipro-1 | Metalist | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 29 Jul 2022 | Metalist | SC Dnipro-1 | Free / loan | €200k |
| 13 Jul 2021 | MFC Metalurg | Metalist | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Aug 2017 | Tavriya-Skif | MFC Metalurg | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2016 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | Tavriya-Skif | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Dynamo Kyiv U17 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.