Calegari
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Calegari's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 15.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €800k vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1620 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1204
- Opponent strength
- 1247
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.4M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-129 Elo); league level down (-54 Elo); relative output up 90% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -53% to +16%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1620 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | RB | 22 | 1620 | 53% | 1 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.23 | 1247 | 1204 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | RB | 18 | 1494 | 49% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 1367 | 1333 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marko Mihojevic Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €1.6M | €200k | fell |
| Attila Mocsi Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €1.8M | €2.0M | flat |
| Fatih Aksoy Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €2.0M | €3.2M | rose |
| Alexandros Katranis Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €1.6M | €800k | fell |
| Loïc Mbe Soh Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
| Atakan Çankaya Super Lig · 2023 | 25 | €1.3M | €800k | fell |
| Leroy Abanda Super League 1 · 2024 | 24 | €700k | €450k | fell |
| Luke Bolton Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 22 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2025 | Fluminense | Eyüpspor | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Famalicão | Fluminense | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 27 Jul 2024 | Fluminense | Famalicão | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 31 Dec 2023 | LA Galaxy | Fluminense | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 27 Feb 2023 | Fluminense | LA Galaxy | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 6 Jan 2020 | Fluminense U20 | Fluminense | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Fluminense U17 | Fluminense U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.