Johnny Cardoso
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Johnny Cardoso's performance-implied value at EUR 7.4M-22.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.3M-24.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.3M-27.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.33x the positional average in the league (892 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 75.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €17.6M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 892 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 75 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1619
- Opponent strength
- 1426
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.3M – €27.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 37 pts; changed club; team strength up (+65 Elo); role change DM -> CM; relative output down 76% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -63% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 892 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CM | 15 | 892 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1426 | 1619 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | DM | 28 | 2145 | 63% | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 1514 | 1555 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | DM | 17 | 1332 | 39% | 1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 1498 | 1520 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 10 | 505 | 1 | 0 | 1660 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 288 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1747 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 208 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 153 | 0 | 0 | 1282 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Winks Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Jesper Lindstrøm Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €22.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Sven Bender Bundesliga · 2015 | 26 | €13.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Mady Camara Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €10.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Yves Bissouma Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €18.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Tiemoué Bakayoko Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €10.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Alessandro Schöpf Bundesliga · 2018 | 24 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Sofyan Amrabat Premier League · 2024 | 28 | €22.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2025 | Real Betis | Atlético | €24.0M | €25.0M |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Internacional | Real Betis | €6.0M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Inter U20 | Internacional | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.