Kristian Hlynsson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kristian Hlynsson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-6.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.2M-8.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.8M-13.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.89x the positional average in the league (2572 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 83
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.3M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 29% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2572 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.49
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1403
- Opponent strength
- 1306
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 29%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.8M – €13.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 38 pts; changed club; team strength up (+76 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +7% (IQR +0% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | AM | 33 | 2572 | 84% | 10 | 4 | 0.49 | 0.36 | 1306 | 1403 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 14 | 1216 | 40% | 2 | 3 | 0.37 | 0.40 | 1306 | 1300 | 0.50 |
| 2024/25 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 4 | 187 | 6% | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.22 | 1201 | 1505 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 25 | 1777 | 58% | 7 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.27 | 1343 | 1439 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 4 | 280 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1558 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1413 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 232 | 0 | 2 | 1529 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sem Steijn Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €10.0M | €11.0M | flat |
| Daniel Svensson Superliga · 2024 | 22 | €3.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Ruslan Litvinov Premier Liga · 2023 | 22 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Valeri Qazaishvili Eredivisie · 2015 | 22 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Morten Frendrup Superliga · 2021 | 20 | €3.5M | €4.2M | rose |
| Berkay Özcan Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €4.0M | €4.2M | flat |
| Yassin Ayoub Eredivisie · 2017 | 23 | €4.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Kristian Thorstvedt Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €5.0M | €8.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2025 | Ajax | FC Twente | €1.8M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Sparta R. | Ajax | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 31 Jan 2025 | Ajax | Sparta R. | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 8 Nov 2023 | Ajax U21 | Ajax | Unknown | €850k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Ajax U18 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2020 | Breidablik U19 | Ajax Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.