Ruslan Litvinov

25 yrs · Centre-back (also DM) · Russia
FK Spartak Moskva · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 184 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€6.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€3.4M – €8.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.5M – €9.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.0M – €7.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€6.6M – €6.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€3.4M – €8.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.5M – €9.4M
Projected value (24 months)€3.0M – €7.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€6.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ruslan Litvinov's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-9.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.4M-8.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.0M-7.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 43

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average62.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral24.9 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €5.6M vs market €6.0M
Expected appreciationLow-13% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.56
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €6.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2085 (77% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.22
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.14
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
62 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo)
1443
Opponent strength
1334
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.0M – €7.7M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; relative output up 544% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -41% to +29%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
48%–200%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
72%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaCB27208577%140.220.14133414430.56
2024/25FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaCB21146054%000.000.02131714700.55
2023/24FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaDM24143153%010.060.07130513830.49
2022/23FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaDM25193071%310.190.11130013940.53
2021/22FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaDM19141853%210.190.12135913590.52
2020/21FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaCB6341%000.000.05127914200.55

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva746110—
2024/25Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva976000—
2023/24Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva628400—
2022/23Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva859303—
2022/23Russian Super CupFK Spartak Moskva129001530
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueFK Spartak Moskva4343001627
2021/22Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva421600—
2020/21Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva13400—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Bakhtiyor Zaynutdinov
Premier Liga · 2023
25€6.0M€3.0Mfell
Roberto Fernández
Premier Liga · 2024
24€3.5M€2.5Mfell
Jordan Torunarigha
Jupiler Pro League · 2023
26€5.0M€4.0Mfell
Roberto Rosales
Eredivisie · 2013
25€4.0M€4.0Mflat
Alexander Scholz
Jupiler Pro League · 2017
25€4.0M€2.0Mfell
Murilo
Premier Liga · 2021
24€2.5M€8.5Mrose
Daniel Muñoz
Jupiler Pro League · 2023
27€9.0M€25.0Mrose
Riechedly Bazoer
Eredivisie · 2021
25€4.5M€2.8Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Sept 2021Spartak 2Spartak MoscowUnknown€400k
1 Jan 2020Spartak IISpartak 2Unknown€175k
19 Jul 2018Akademia FCSMSpartak IIUnknown€75k

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Ruslan Litvinov · MoneyballAI