
Ruslan Litvinov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ruslan Litvinov's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-9.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.4M-8.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.0M-7.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.6M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2085 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1443
- Opponent strength
- 1334
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.0M – €7.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; relative output up 544% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -41% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 2085 | 77% | 1 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 1334 | 1443 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 21 | 1460 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1317 | 1470 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 24 | 1431 | 53% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1305 | 1383 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 25 | 1930 | 71% | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 1300 | 1394 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 19 | 1418 | 53% | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 1359 | 1359 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 6 | 34 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1279 | 1420 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 7 | 461 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 9 | 760 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 6 | 284 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 8 | 593 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Super Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1530 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | FK Spartak Moskva | 4 | 343 | 0 | 0 | 1627 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 4 | 216 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 34 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bakhtiyor Zaynutdinov Premier Liga · 2023 | 25 | €6.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Roberto Fernández Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Jordan Torunarigha Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 26 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Roberto Rosales Eredivisie · 2013 | 25 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Alexander Scholz Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Murilo Premier Liga · 2021 | 24 | €2.5M | €8.5M | rose |
| Daniel Muñoz Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 27 | €9.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Riechedly Bazoer Eredivisie · 2021 | 25 | €4.5M | €2.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2021 | Spartak 2 | Spartak Moscow | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Spartak II | Spartak 2 | Unknown | €175k |
| 19 Jul 2018 | Akademia FCSM | Spartak II | Unknown | €75k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.