Arda Okan Kurtulan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arda Okan Kurtulan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.4M-10.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.9M-12.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.80x the positional average in the league (2439 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 64
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 19.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.6M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2439 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1281
- Opponent strength
- 1278
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.9M – €12.7M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+240 Elo); role change RB -> RM; relative output down 39% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +18% (IQR -12% to +36%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Göztepe | Super Lig | RM | 31 | 2439 | 80% | 4 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.18 | 1278 | 1281 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Adana Demirspor | Super Lig | RB | 27 | 2280 | 70% | 1 | 4 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 1268 | 1040 | 0.39 |
| 2021/22 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | RW | 1 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1035 | 1422 | 0.42 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vini Souza Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €4.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Berkan Kutlu Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €3.3M | €4.0M | rose |
| Bryan Heynen Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €6.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Willum Thór Willumsson Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Daniil Utkin Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Nicolas Raskin Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 21 | €5.0M | €6.5M | rose |
| Gedson Fernandes Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €15.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Mirko Topić Liga Portugal · 2024 | 23 | €3.5M | €4.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Adana Demirspor | Göztepe | Free / loan | €350k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Diyarbekir Spor | Adana Demirspor | Free / loan | €200k |
| 15 Aug 2023 | Adana Demirspor | Diyarbekir Spor | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Karacabey Bld | Adana Demirspor | Free / loan | €200k |
| 26 Jan 2023 | Adana Demirspor | Karacabey Bld | Free / loan | €250k |
| 14 Jul 2022 | Fenerbahçe | Adana Demirspor | €200k | €75k |
| 13 Jul 2021 | Fenerbahce U19 | Fenerbahçe | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Fenerbahce U17 | Fenerbahce U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 20 Feb 2019 | E. Erokspor Yth | Fenerbahce U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 11 Oct 2017 | Aks. Parsel Jgd | Erokspor Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 4 Sept 2015 | Göktürk Sa. Jgd | Aks. Parsel Jgd | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 9 Jan 2015 | Aks. Parsel Jgd | Göktürk Sa. Jgd | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.