Bitello
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bitello's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-13.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.8M-17.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.8M-17.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (2332 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 31
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 67.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €12.8M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2332 (86% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.58
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1423
- Opponent strength
- 1323
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.8M – €17.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -28% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 27 | 2332 | 86% | 6 | 9 | 0.58 | 0.43 | 1323 | 1423 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 26 | 2086 | 77% | 3 | 12 | 0.65 | 0.48 | 1306 | 1445 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | LW | 23 | 1761 | 65% | 8 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.50 | 1318 | 1374 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 10 | 684 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 9 | 401 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 6 | 398 | 2 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Oblyakov Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €9.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Wendel Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Danilo Pereira Liga Portugal · 2016 | 25 | €12.0M | €24.0M | rose |
| Roman Zobnin Premier Liga · 2020 | 26 | €9.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Bryan Heynen Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 26 | €11.0M | €11.0M | flat |
| Sofiane Hanni Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 28 | €8.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Héctor Herrera Liga Portugal · 2016 | 26 | €16.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| William Carvalho Liga Portugal · 2017 | 25 | €25.0M | €25.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sept 2023 | Grêmio | Dynamo Moscow | €10.0M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Grêmio B | Grêmio | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Mar 2021 | Grêmio U20 | Grêmio B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2019 | Cascavel-PR | Grêmio U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2019 | Grêmio U20 | Cascavel-PR | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2018 | Cascavel-PR | Grêmio U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.