Zachary Sapsford
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Zachary Sapsford's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.89x the positional average in the league (2278 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 18.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €669k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2278 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 18 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1178
- Opponent strength
- 1204
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €489k – €1.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -41% to +15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 12 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 75%–114%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 33 | 2278 | 77% | 8 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 1204 | 1177 | 0.31 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Dundee United FC | 4 | 304 | 2 | 2 | 1326 |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 3 | 169 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherif Ndiaye Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €2.0M | €2.2M | flat |
| Paolo Fernandes Super League 1 · 2022 | 24 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Kosta Aleksic Super League 1 · 2024 | 26 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Benjamin Tetteh Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €2.3M | €1.5M | fell |
| Mathias Kristensen Superliga · 2019 | 22 | €1.0M | €350k | fell |
| Igor Krasnopir Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €400k | €1.5M | rose |
| Thuram Super League 1 · 2017 | 26 | €700k | €300k | fell |
| Emmanuel Sabbi Superliga · 2020 | 23 | €800k | €700k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Western Sydney | Dundee United | Unknown | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Sydney FC II | Western Sydney | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Hakoah Sydney | Sydney FC II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Chester U18 | Hakoah Sydney | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.