César Tárrega
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates César Tárrega's performance-implied value at EUR 7.5M-22.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.8M-13.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.2M-14.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 79.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.7M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2596 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1497
- Opponent strength
- 1488
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.2M – €14.7M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 76% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -48% to +9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CB | 32 | 2596 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1488 | 1496 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CB | 34 | 3027 | 89% | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1519 | 1463 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CB | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1671 | 1459 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 166 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 4 | 157 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Jesus Serie A · 2014 | 23 | €12.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Carlos Zambrano Bundesliga · 2014 | 25 | €8.0M | €6.5M | flat |
| Timo Baumgartl Bundesliga · 2018 | 22 | €12.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Davide Astori Serie A · 2013 | 26 | €11.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Stefan Posch Bundesliga · 2021 | 24 | €13.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Karim Rekik Bundesliga · 2019 | 25 | €15.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Maya Yoshida Premier League · 2013 | 25 | €4.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Martin Hinteregger Bundesliga · 2018 | 26 | €10.0M | €14.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | Real Valladolid | Valencia | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 19 Jan 2024 | Valencia | Real Valladolid | Free / loan | €150k |
| 18 Jan 2024 | Valencia B | Valencia | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jun 2022 | Valencia U19 | Valencia B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Levante UD Yout | Valencia U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Patacona CF You | Levante UD Yout | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Levante UD Yout | Patacona CF You | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Don Bosco Youth | Levante UD Yout | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.