Mathis Servais
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mathis Servais's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-4.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.6M-8.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.3M-12.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.19x the positional average in the league (1928 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 35.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €4.8M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 41% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1928 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 35 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1370
- Opponent strength
- 1354
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 41%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.3M – €12.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -39% to +39%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | LM | 22 | 1928 | 71% | 2 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 1354 | 1370 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | KV Mechelen | 10 | 870 | 0 | 1 | 1484 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Mensah Liga Portugal · 2015 | 21 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Mike Tresor Eredivisie · 2020 | 21 | €3.6M | €3.0M | flat |
| Diego Lopes Liga Portugal · 2015 | 21 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ritsu Doan Eredivisie · 2018 | 20 | €2.5M | €6.3M | rose |
| Quinten Timber Eredivisie · 2022 | 21 | €4.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Alexis De Sart Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 23 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Roman Bezus Premier Liga · 2013 | 23 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Leonardo Lelo Liga Portugal · 2023 | 23 | €3.5M | €4.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Sept 2025 | SK Beveren | KV Mechelen | €1.2M | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Club NXT | SK Beveren | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Club Brugge U18 | Club NXT | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Club Brugge Yth | Club Brugge U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Charleroi Youth | Club Brugge Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.