İbrahim Kaya
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates İbrahim Kaya's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.16x the positional average in the league (1154 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 85
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 8.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.0M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1154 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.55
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.47
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1276
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €729k – €2.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -28% to +69%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1154 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | AM | 30 | 1154 | 38% | 6 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.47 | 1276 | 1229 | 0.40 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fousseni Diabaté Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €2.3M | €5.0M | rose |
| Stevie Mallan Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €850k | €350k | fell |
| Ignacio Saavedra Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €1.2M | €2.5M | rose |
| Iron Gomis Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Joseph Attamah Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €950k | €1.5M | rose |
| Kristijan Bistrovic Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €2.2M | €2.0M | flat |
| Aleksandar Jukic Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Jefferson Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €1.6M | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Bandirma Spor | Alanyaspor | Unknown | €275k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Erbaaspor | Bandirma Spor | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 17 Jul 2023 | 23 Elazig FK | Erbaaspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 24 Aug 2022 | Istanbul U19 | 23 Elazig FK | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Karakocan FK | Istanbul U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 13 Jan 2022 | Istanbul U19 | Karakocan FK | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 12 Jan 2022 | Ofspor | Istanbul U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Istanbul U19 | Ofspor | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 12 Oct 2018 | Akhisarspor Yth | Istanbul U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 13 Oct 2017 | Kasimpasa Yth | Akhisarspor Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.