Thibo Somers
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Thibo Somers's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-2.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.21x the positional average in the league (2100 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 45.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2100 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1365
- Opponent strength
- 1375
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; changed club; role change RW -> RM; relative output up 76% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -30% to +115%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | RM | 25 | 2100 | 78% | 4 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.27 | 1375 | 1365 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 30 | 2576 | 95% | 3 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.30 | 1375 | 1361 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 26 | 2295 | 85% | 5 | 4 | 0.35 | 0.37 | 1378 | 1394 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 31 | 2625 | 86% | 5 | 6 | 0.38 | 0.36 | 1301 | 1373 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 24 | 1520 | 50% | 5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 1370 | 1305 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 21 | 380 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.43 | 1353 | 1228 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 13 | 585 | 22% | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.54 | 1410 | 1202 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Royal Antwerp FC | 7 | 334 | 0 | 0 | 1382 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Cercle Brugge | 4 | 360 | 1 | 0 | 1386 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Cercle Brugge | 1 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 1366 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Maher Eredivisie · 2021 | 28 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Castro Super Lig · 2015 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Gaius Makouta Liga Portugal · 2023 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.1M | fell |
| Tjaronn Chery Eredivisie · 2014 | 26 | €1.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Badou Ndiaye Super Lig · 2016 | 26 | €4.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| André Leão Liga Portugal · 2014 | 29 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Óscar Scarione Super Lig · 2015 | 30 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Daniel Wass Ligue 1 · 2015 | 26 | €5.0M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2025 | Cercle Brugge | Royal Antwerp | €1.5M | €2.5M |
| 1 Nov 2019 | Cercle U21 | Cercle Brugge | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Cercle U19 | Cercle U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Cercle Youth | Cercle U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.