Roberto Fernández
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Roberto Fernández's performance-implied value at EUR 5.4M-15.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.7M-16.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.0M-18.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (2387 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 37
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €10.5M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2387 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.41
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1399
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.0M – €18.7M
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+43 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -60% to +64%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | ST | 38 | 2387 | 70% | 7 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.48 | 1491 | 1399 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | ST | 19 | 1509 | 44% | 6 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.57 | 1533 | 1411 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | ST | 15 | 502 | 16% | 1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.33 | 1378 | 1478 | 0.51 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 2 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 6 | 288 | 0 | 1 | 1551 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 6 | 214 | 1 | 0 | 1470 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josip Brekalo Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €15.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Stephy Mavididi Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €10.0M | €11.0M | flat |
| Beto Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €10.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| François Kamano Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €15.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Nikola Krstović Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €6.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Sergio Camello Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €10.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Vladimír Darida Bundesliga · 2014 | 24 | €6.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Mattia Destro Serie A · 2017 | 26 | €8.0M | €3.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Braga | Espanyol | €6.2M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Espanyol | Braga | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 14 Jan 2025 | Braga | Espanyol | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 9 Jul 2024 | Málaga CF | Braga | €2.4M | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Barça Atlètic | Málaga CF | Free / loan | €500k |
| 22 Jul 2022 | Málaga CF | Barça Atlètic | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Málaga U19 | Málaga CF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | San Félix U19 | Málaga U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Málaga CF Youth | San Félix U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Córdoba CF Yout | Málaga CF Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sevilla FC Yth. | Córdoba CF Yout | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Córdoba CF Yout | Sevilla FC Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.