Nikola Krstović
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nikola Krstović's performance-implied value at EUR 9.3M-34.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 22.9M-42.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.4M-42.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.00x the positional average in the league (1786 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 23
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 84.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €31.6M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1786 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.76
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.51
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1588
- Opponent strength
- 1475
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.4M – €42.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 38 pts; changed club; team strength up (+237 Elo); relative output down 22% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +19% (IQR -27% to +53%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1786 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | ST | 33 | 1786 | 52% | 10 | 5 | 0.76 | 0.51 | 1475 | 1588 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | US Lecce | Serie A | ST | 37 | 3070 | 90% | 11 | 5 | 0.47 | 0.68 | 1502 | 1351 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | US Lecce | Serie A | ST | 35 | 2388 | 70% | 7 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.55 | 1482 | 1359 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 12 | 576 | 1 | 1 | 1661 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 3 | 190 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 1 | 72 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | DAC Dunajska Streda | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1340 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Sabitzer Bundesliga · 2018 | 24 | €25.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Memphis Depay Ligue 1 · 2020 | 26 | €44.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Mattia Zaccagni Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €18.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Andriy Yarmolenko Bundesliga · 2018 | 29 | €23.0M | €9.5M | fell |
| Folarin Balogun Ligue 1 · 2024 | 23 | €30.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Wissam Ben Yedder Laliga · 2017 | 27 | €15.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Martin Terrier Ligue 1 · 2023 | 26 | €30.0M | €17.0M | fell |
| Roberto Firmino Premier League · 2016 | 25 | €35.0M | €80.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2025 | Lecce | Atalanta | €25.0M | €15.0M |
| 18 Aug 2023 | Dunajska Streda | Lecce | €8.2M | €2.2M |
| 4 Sept 2021 | Red Star | Dunajska Streda | €400k | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Graficar | Red Star | Free / loan | €300k |
| 4 Feb 2020 | Red Star | Graficar | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Zeta Golubovac | Red Star | Free / loan | €400k |
| 26 Feb 2019 | Red Star | Zeta Golubovac | Free / loan | €350k |
| 25 Feb 2019 | Zeta Golubovac | Red Star | €300k | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Golubovac U19 | Zeta Golubovac | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.