Olivier Aertssen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Olivier Aertssen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 100
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 11.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €317k vs market €650k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 20% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1857 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 11 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1186
- Opponent strength
- 1310
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 20%
- Resale range (24m)
- €406k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 24 pts; team strength down (-79 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +72% (IQR +0% to +160%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | RB | 28 | 1857 | 61% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1310 | 1186 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | RB | 20 | 1118 | 37% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 1296 | 1265 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 2 | 169 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominik Oroz Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €400k | €1.0M | rose |
| Jonas Bager Superliga · 2018 | 22 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Dzhamaldin Khodzhaniyazov Superliga · 2017 | 21 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Syb van Ottele Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Mathias Ross Superliga · 2021 | 20 | €500k | €1.5M | rose |
| Charalampos Lykogiannis Super League 1 · 2015 | 22 | €600k | €1.8M | rose |
| Karim Hafez Super Lig · 2020 | 24 | €675k | €1.0M | rose |
| Andreas Maxsø Superliga · 2015 | 21 | €400k | €800k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2024 | Ajax U21 | PEC Zwolle | €150k | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Ajax U18 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sparta Youth | Ajax Youth | €14k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Kloetinge Yth. | Sparta Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.