Luca Lipani
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luca Lipani's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-6.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.2M-12.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.1M-17.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.16x the positional average in the league (1027 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 67
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 37.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.2M vs market €7.5M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 32% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1027 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 32%
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.1M – €17.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +41% (IQR +0% to +80%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1027 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | DM | 24 | 1027 | 30% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 1491 | 1405 | 0.93 |
| 2023/24 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | DM | 8 | 386 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1587 | 1330 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 2 | 103 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 2 | 114 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Melamed Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Jacopo Fazzini Serie A · 2024 | 21 | €6.0M | €8.5M | rose |
| Stefano Sturaro Serie A · 2014 | 21 | €3.5M | €11.0M | rose |
| Godfred Donsah Serie A · 2017 | 21 | €5.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Youssouf Fofana Ligue 1 · 2019 | 20 | €5.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Ilaix Moriba Laliga · 2023 | 20 | €4.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Zakaria Labyad Liga Portugal · 2013 | 20 | €5.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Khalil Fayad Ligue 1 · 2024 | 20 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2023 | Genoa | Sassuolo | €4.5M | €400k |
| 1 Dec 2022 | Genoa U19 | Genoa | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Genoa U17 | Genoa U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Apr 2021 | Genoa CFC Youth | Genoa U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.