Tom de Graaff
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tom de Graaff's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-3.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 83
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 11.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €974k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 41% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2790 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 11 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1186
- Opponent strength
- 1304
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 41%
- Resale range (24m)
- €789k – €3.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -38% to +182%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 217 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–152%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | GK | 31 | 2790 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1304 | 1186 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guillaume Dietsch Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 21 | €850k | €600k | fell |
| Jasper Schendelaar Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €1.3M | €1.5M | flat |
| Oliver Christensen Superliga · 2021 | 22 | €1.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Christos Mandas Super League 1 · 2023 | 22 | €1.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Frederik Rönnow Superliga · 2013 | 21 | €750k | €500k | fell |
| Matz Sels Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 21 | €900k | €3.0M | rose |
| Jeppe Höjbjerg Superliga · 2019 | 24 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Ilya Svinov Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €800k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Utrecht | PEC Zwolle | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | PEC Zwolle | Utrecht | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 2 Aug 2025 | Utrecht | PEC Zwolle | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Ajax U21 | Utrecht | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Ajax U18 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | EVC Jgd. | Ajax Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.