Oleksandr Kemkin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oleksandr Kemkin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-2.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 27.8th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €772k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2086 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 28 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1219
- Opponent strength
- 1148
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €502k – €2.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 21 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +2% (IQR -31% to +92%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | Premier Liga | GK | 24 | 2086 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1148 | 1219 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | GK | 17 | 1530 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1226 | 1185 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | FC Minaj | Premier Liga | GK | 14 | 1260 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1253 | 1128 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | FC Minaj | Premier Liga | GK | 2 | 91 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1459 | 1175 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Minaj | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oleksandr Saputin Premier Liga · 2024 | 21 | €700k | €900k | rose |
| Christos Mandas Super League 1 · 2023 | 22 | €1.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Pavlo Isenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 21 | €700k | €1.2M | rose |
| William Eskelinen Superliga · 2020 | 24 | €650k | €350k | fell |
| Antonis Tsiftsis Super League 1 · 2022 | 23 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Gökhan Akkan Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €3.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Georgios Strezos Super League 1 · 2019 | 24 | €400k | €325k | flat |
| Arijanet Murić Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €2.6M | €7.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Karpaty Lviv | Kryvbas | €175k | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Kryvbas | Karpaty Lviv | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 5 Jul 2025 | Karpaty Lviv | Kryvbas | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | FC Minaj | Karpaty Lviv | €180k | €200k |
| 27 Jul 2021 | Shakhtar II | FC Minaj | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Shakhtar U17 | Shakhtar II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.