Giuliano Simeone
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Giuliano Simeone's performance-implied value at EUR 13.1M-52.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 27.7M-50.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 24.6M-57.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.81x the positional average in the league (2110 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 29
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €41.0M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2110 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1619
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €24.6M – €57.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -42% to +22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | RW | 31 | 2110 | 62% | 4 | 6 | 0.43 | 0.32 | 1491 | 1619 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | RW | 33 | 1941 | 57% | 2 | 6 | 0.37 | 0.28 | 1485 | 1655 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | LW | 14 | 628 | 18% | 1 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.53 | 1496 | 1431 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 15 | 1192 | 2 | 1 | 1687 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 6 | 411 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1747 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Argentina | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 9 | 571 | 1 | 2 | 1654 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 341 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 2 | 91 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Balotelli Serie A · 2013 | 23 | €30.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| Ante Rebić Bundesliga · 2019 | 26 | €40.0M | €32.0M | fell |
| Sergio Agüero Premier League · 2013 | 25 | €45.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Dušan Vlahović Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €65.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Sofiane Diop Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €20.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Lucas Moura Ligue 1 · 2015 | 23 | €32.0M | €38.0M | flat |
| Victor Osimhen Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €65.0M | €100M | rose |
| Willian Premier Liga · 2013 | 25 | €30.0M | €30.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | Alavés | Atlético | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 21 Jul 2023 | Atlético | Alavés | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Real Zaragoza | Atlético | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 4 Jul 2022 | Atlético | Real Zaragoza | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Atl. Madrileño | Atlético | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Atl. Madrid U19 | Atl. Madrileño | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 11 Sept 2019 | River Plate U20 | Atl. Madrid U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.