Koke

34 yrs · Central midfielder (also AM, DM, LM, RM) · Spain
Atlético de Madrid · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 176 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€5.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.3M – €4.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.2M – €4.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.4M – €3.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.8M – €3.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.3M – €4.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.2M – €4.6M
Projected value (24 months)€1.4M – €3.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Koke's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-4.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-4.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.62x the positional average in the league (2220 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceElite92.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.7M vs market €5.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-62% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €70.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2220 (65% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.16
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.14
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
92 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1619
Opponent strength
1495
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.4M – €3.1M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -64% (IQR -75% to -33%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Atlético de MadridLaligaCM34222065%220.160.13149516190.95
2024/25Atlético de MadridLaligaCM32192656%110.090.11148416550.95
2023/24Atlético de MadridLaligaCM35250273%040.140.13148516671.00
2022/23Atlético de MadridLaligaDM33256075%030.110.09150916560.98
2021/22Atlético de MadridLaligaCM31250973%120.110.11153316771.05
2020/21Atlético de MadridLaligaDM37302588%120.090.09156017281.10
2019/20Atlético de MadridLaligaRM32270079%450.300.23152417591.16
2018/19Atlético de MadridLaligaRM30258876%360.310.23154917361.14
2017/18Atlético de MadridLaligaLM35276281%440.260.21154517681.11
2016/17Atlético de MadridLaligaCM36317293%480.340.20155017921.11
2015/16Atlético de MadridLaligaLM35297287%5150.610.32155818291.17
2013/14Atlético de MadridLaligaAM36280782%6140.640.40154118121.19
2012/13Atlético de MadridLaligaCM33252174%3110.500.31150416521.06

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid16948001708
2025/26Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid538201—
2025/26SupercopaAtlético de Madrid160001747
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid7402011594
2024/25Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid533000—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid9771011707
2023/24Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid541001—
2023/24SupercopaAtlético de Madrid1104001810
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid4330001595
2022/23Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid531400—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid9665011746
2021/22Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid210000—
2021/22SupercopaAtlético de Madrid184001553
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid8664001697
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid9800011710
2019/20SupercopaAtlético de Madrid127101838
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid7562211649
2018/19Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid324100—
2018/19Uefa Super CupAtlético de Madrid1120101885
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueAtlético de Madrid9755231573
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid4333001738
2017/18Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid324300—
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid121044011686
2016/17Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid647811—
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid111038011733
2015/16Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid542101—
2013/14Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid131093121680
2013/14Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid756302—
2013/14SupercopaAtlético de Madrid2162001777
2012/13Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid744701—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Juan Cuadrado
Serie A · 2022
34€8.0M€1.0Mfell
Remo Freuler
Serie A · 2024
32€6.5M€3.0Mfell
Felipe Melo
Serie A · 2016
33€3.5M€1.0Mfell
David Pizarro
Serie A · 2013
34€3.0M€500kfell
Daniele De Rossi
Serie A · 2018
35€3.5M€1.0Mfell
Giacomo Bonaventura
Serie A · 2024
35€3.0M€3.0Mflat
Fernando
Laliga · 2023
36€3.0M€2.0Mfell
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
Serie A · 2023
34€6.0M€4.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jan 2011Atl. MadrileñoAtléticoUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Atl.Madleño U18Atl. MadrileñoUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Atlético Yth.Atl.Madleño U18UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.