
Koke
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Koke's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-4.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-4.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.62x the positional average in the league (2220 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 92.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -62% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2220 (65% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1619
- Opponent strength
- 1495
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -64% (IQR -75% to -33%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CM | 34 | 2220 | 65% | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 1495 | 1619 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CM | 32 | 1926 | 56% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1484 | 1655 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CM | 35 | 2502 | 73% | 0 | 4 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 1485 | 1667 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | DM | 33 | 2560 | 75% | 0 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 1509 | 1656 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CM | 31 | 2509 | 73% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1533 | 1677 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | DM | 37 | 3025 | 88% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1560 | 1728 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | RM | 32 | 2700 | 79% | 4 | 5 | 0.30 | 0.23 | 1524 | 1759 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | RM | 30 | 2588 | 76% | 3 | 6 | 0.31 | 0.23 | 1549 | 1736 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | LM | 35 | 2762 | 81% | 4 | 4 | 0.26 | 0.21 | 1545 | 1768 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CM | 36 | 3172 | 93% | 4 | 8 | 0.34 | 0.20 | 1550 | 1792 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | LM | 35 | 2972 | 87% | 5 | 15 | 0.61 | 0.32 | 1558 | 1829 | 1.17 |
| 2013/14 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | AM | 36 | 2807 | 82% | 6 | 14 | 0.64 | 0.40 | 1541 | 1812 | 1.19 |
| 2012/13 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CM | 33 | 2521 | 74% | 3 | 11 | 0.50 | 0.31 | 1504 | 1652 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 16 | 948 | 0 | 0 | 1708 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 382 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1747 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 402 | 0 | 1 | 1594 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 9 | 771 | 0 | 1 | 1707 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 410 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 104 | 0 | 0 | 1810 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 330 | 0 | 0 | 1595 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 314 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 9 | 665 | 0 | 1 | 1746 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 100 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1553 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 8 | 664 | 0 | 0 | 1697 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 9 | 800 | 0 | 1 | 1710 |
| 2019/20 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 1838 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 562 | 2 | 1 | 1649 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 3 | 241 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Super Cup | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | 1885 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Atlético de Madrid | 9 | 755 | 2 | 3 | 1573 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 333 | 0 | 0 | 1738 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 3 | 243 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 12 | 1044 | 0 | 1 | 1686 |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 6 | 478 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 11 | 1038 | 0 | 1 | 1733 |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 421 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 13 | 1093 | 1 | 2 | 1680 |
| 2013/14 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 563 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2013/14 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 162 | 0 | 0 | 1777 |
| 2012/13 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 447 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Cuadrado Serie A · 2022 | 34 | €8.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Remo Freuler Serie A · 2024 | 32 | €6.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Felipe Melo Serie A · 2016 | 33 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| David Pizarro Serie A · 2013 | 34 | €3.0M | €500k | fell |
| Daniele De Rossi Serie A · 2018 | 35 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Giacomo Bonaventura Serie A · 2024 | 35 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Fernando Laliga · 2023 | 36 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan Serie A · 2023 | 34 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2011 | Atl. Madrileño | Atlético | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Atl.Madleño U18 | Atl. Madrileño | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Atlético Yth. | Atl.Madleño U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.