Pedro Bravo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pedro Bravo's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-6.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-6.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.0M-13.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.26x the positional average in the league (1151 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 47.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €3.9M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +86% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 44% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1151 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1562
- Opponent strength
- 1243
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 44%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.0M – €13.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 34 pts; team strength up (+164 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo); relative output down 76% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -74% to +22%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1151 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | CM | 19 | 1151 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1243 | 1562 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | CM | 13 | 472 | 24% | 1 | 2 | 0.57 | 0.23 | 1275 | 1399 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 10 | 576 | 0 | 0 | 1496 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 423 | 0 | 0 | 1307 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 6 | 347 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 10 | 230 | 0 | 1 | 1534 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 70 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanislav Magkeev Premier Liga · 2021 | 22 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
| Mathias Kjølø Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €5.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Konstantinos Galanopoulos Super League 1 · 2018 | 21 | €2.5M | €2.8M | flat |
| Anderson Esiti Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 24 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
| Maksim Mukhin Premier Liga · 2022 | 21 | €3.5M | €2.8M | fell |
| Beram Kayal Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 25 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Gojko Cimirot Super League 1 · 2017 | 25 | €3.5M | €5.5M | rose |
| Tolga Cigerci Super Lig · 2017 | 25 | €3.0M | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | CD América | Midtjylland | €500k | €850k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Mafra | CD América | Free / loan | €850k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | CD América | Mafra | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Orsomarso SC | CD América | Free / loan | €100k |
| 19 Jan 2022 | CD América | Orsomarso SC | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Apr 2021 | CD América U20 | CD América | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.