Santiago Hezze
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Santiago Hezze's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-13.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.6M-19.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.8M-19.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.26x the positional average in the league (1400 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 33
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €12.7M vs market €14.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1400 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1550
- Opponent strength
- 1244
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.8M – €19.3M
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+40 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -54% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1400 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | DM | 20 | 1400 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1244 | 1550 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | DM | 24 | 1601 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1253 | 1525 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | DM | 21 | 1642 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1252 | 1490 | 0.42 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 9 | 699 | 1 | 1 | 1627 |
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 9 | 702 | 1 | 0 | 1496 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 6 | 459 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 6 | 451 | 0 | 1 | 1476 |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 190 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 121 | 0 | 0 | 1319 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florentino Liga Portugal · 2024 | 25 | €20.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Mady Camara Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €11.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Julian Weigl Liga Portugal · 2021 | 26 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Víctor Méndez Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €5.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Lucas Torreira Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €15.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Sergiy Rybalka Premier Liga · 2016 | 26 | €4.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Fred Premier Liga · 2015 | 22 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| John Lundstram Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 28 | €7.5M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2023 | Huracán | Olympiacos | €4.0M | €8.0M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Huracán II | Huracán | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.