Emirhan İlkhan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Emirhan İlkhan's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-10.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.4M-10.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-14.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 2.16x the positional average in the league (1008 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 90
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.5M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1008 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1419
- Opponent strength
- 1517
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.2M – €14.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +29% (IQR -20% to +92%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1008 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Torino FC | Serie A | DM | 19 | 1008 | 29% | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 1517 | 1419 | 0.93 |
| 2023/24 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | AM | 30 | 1039 | 30% | 1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 1300 | 1397 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | UC Sampdoria | Serie A | CM | 8 | 105 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1444 | 1271 | 0.94 |
| 2022/23 | Torino FC | Serie A | CM | 4 | 87 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1377 | 1468 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | CM | 11 | 633 | 19% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 1246 | 1342 | 0.42 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 3 | 164 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Ángel Carmona Laliga · 2023 | 21 | €4.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Tommaso Pobega Serie A · 2021 | 22 | €6.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Denis Huseinbasic Bundesliga · 2023 | 22 | €5.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Kamory Doumbia Ligue 1 · 2024 | 21 | €5.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Toma Bašić Ligue 1 · 2020 | 24 | €4.8M | €8.0M | rose |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj Bundesliga · 2020 | 23 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Erik Thommy Bundesliga · 2018 | 24 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Thierry Doubai Ligue 1 · 2013 | 25 | €2.5M | €750k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | Basaksehir | Torino | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Aug 2023 | Torino | Basaksehir | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Sampdoria | Torino | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Torino | Sampdoria | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 8 Aug 2022 | Besiktas | Torino | €4.9M | €3.0M |
| 3 Jan 2022 | Besiktas U19 | Besiktas | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 4 Aug 2020 | Besiktas U16 | Besiktas U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Besiktas Yth | Besiktas U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.