Connor Allan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Connor Allan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 46
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €408k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 11% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1543 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1181
- Opponent strength
- 1221
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 11%
- Resale range (24m)
- €289k – €634k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -38% to -25%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1543 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Falkirk FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 20 | 1543 | 52% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1221 | 1181 | 0.31 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Falkirk FC | 3 | 245 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corrie Ndaba Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €350k | €900k | rose |
| Denys Slyusar Premier Liga · 2023 | 21 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Slobodan Rubežić Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Oleg Gorin Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Alexandros Malis Super League 1 · 2019 | 22 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Elías Pereyra Super League 1 · 2021 | 22 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Robbie Deas Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €650k | €500k | fell |
| Vasyl Gakman Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €300k | €175k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2025 | Kelty Hearts | Falkirk | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Falkirk | Kelty Hearts | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Rangers B | Falkirk | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Kelty Hearts | Rangers B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 20 Sept 2024 | Rangers B | Kelty Hearts | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Rangers FC U18 | Rangers B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Rangers FC U17 | Rangers FC U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.