Emersonn
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Emersonn's performance-implied value at EUR 2.5M-8.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.1M-16.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.8M-21.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (1628 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 53
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €10.6M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 30% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1628 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.50
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.47
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1430
- Opponent strength
- 1457
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 30%
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.8M – €21.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 39 pts; changed club; team strength up (+229 Elo); league level up (+190 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +4% (IQR -16% to +76%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1628 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | ST | 27 | 1504 | 49% | 6 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 1457 | 1442 | 0.88 |
| 2025/26 | Göztepe | Super Lig | ST | 3 | 124 | 4% | 1 | 0 | 0.73 | 0.57 | 1275 | 1281 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Göztepe | Super Lig | ST | 14 | 453 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.46 | 1298 | 1201 | 0.39 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rony Lopes Ligue 1 · 2017 | 22 | €8.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Martin Terrier Ligue 1 · 2018 | 21 | €9.0M | €10.5M | flat |
| Justin Kluivert Ligue 1 · 2022 | 23 | €15.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Matteo Cancellieri Serie A · 2024 | 22 | €4.8M | €7.0M | rose |
| Thomas Lemar Ligue 1 · 2016 | 21 | €7.5M | €65.0M | rose |
| Alexis Flips Ligue 1 · 2023 | 23 | €6.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Giannis Fetfatzidis Serie A · 2014 | 24 | €3.8M | €3.5M | flat |
| Ibrahima Koné Ligue 1 · 2023 | 24 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Göztepe | Toulouse | €3.2M | €1.4M |
| 22 Jan 2025 | Athletico-PR | Göztepe | €1.8M | €600k |
| 1 Apr 2024 | Athletico U20 | Athletico-PR | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Athletico U17 | Athletico U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.