Josimar Alcócer
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Josimar Alcócer's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-5.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-4.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-6.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.83x the positional average in the league (1963 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 50
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 30.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.0M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 24% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1963 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1348
- Opponent strength
- 1380
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 24%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €6.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 24 pts; relative output up 53% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +9% (IQR -2% to +44%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 26 | 1963 | 73% | 3 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.34 | 1380 | 1348 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 24 | 1304 | 48% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.23 | 1366 | 1322 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 1 | 23 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 1445 | 1293 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | KVC Westerlo | 9 | 759 | 0 | 1 | 1378 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Othmane Boussaid Eredivisie · 2023 | 23 | €2.2M | €2.0M | flat |
| Shamar Nicholson Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 24 | €2.5M | €4.5M | rose |
| Youness Mokhtar Eredivisie · 2015 | 24 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Bruno Tabata Liga Portugal · 2019 | 22 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Rafik Guitane Liga Portugal · 2022 | 23 | €2.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Thibo Somers Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 24 | €2.1M | €2.5M | flat |
| Didier Lamkel Zé Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 24 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Sheraldo Becker Eredivisie · 2018 | 23 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2023 | LD Alajuelense | KVC Westerlo | €1.2M | €225k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Alajuelense II | LD Alajuelense | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Juv. Escazuceña | Alajuelense II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Alajuelense II | Juv. Escazuceña | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Alajuelense U17 | Alajuelense II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.