Josué Casimir
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Josué Casimir's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-5.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-3.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-4.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.55x the positional average in the league (1521 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.4M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1521 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1402
- Opponent strength
- 1490
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €4.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts; changed club; team strength up (+68 Elo); relative output down 54% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -52% to +100%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1521 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 | RW | 31 | 1521 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.22 | 1490 | 1402 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 | RW | 27 | 2006 | 66% | 4 | 6 | 0.45 | 0.52 | 1470 | 1333 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 | RW | 30 | 2028 | 66% | 0 | 5 | 0.22 | 0.37 | 1487 | 1351 | 0.87 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Haiti | 3 | 181 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wood Bundesliga · 2018 | 26 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Maicón Premier Liga · 2015 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.7M | fell |
| Hugo Duro Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €4.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Linton Maina Bundesliga · 2024 | 25 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Gauthier Hein Ligue 1 · 2023 | 27 | €2.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Victor Obinna Premier Liga · 2013 | 26 | €3.0M | €500k | fell |
| Yuya Osako Bundesliga · 2016 | 26 | €2.3M | €4.5M | rose |
| Eljero Elia Bundesliga · 2013 | 26 | €4.5M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Le Havre AC | AJ Auxerre | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Le Havre B | Le Havre AC | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Le Havre U19 | Le Havre B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Le Havre U17 | Le Havre U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.