Yoann Cathline
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yoann Cathline's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-5.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.9M-7.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-8.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.85x the positional average in the league (1893 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 58
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 48.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.3M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1893 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.33
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1352
- Opponent strength
- 1304
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.6M – €8.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -53% to -6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | LW | 26 | 1893 | 62% | 3 | 4 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 1304 | 1352 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | LW | 25 | 1957 | 64% | 6 | 5 | 0.51 | 0.42 | 1326 | 1409 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Almere City FC | Eredivisie | LW | 28 | 1719 | 56% | 4 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.41 | 1337 | 1179 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | LW | 23 | 1083 | 32% | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.32 | 1469 | 1396 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Utrecht | 5 | 371 | 0 | 0 | 1496 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Utrecht | 3 | 229 | 0 | 1 | 1348 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 2 | 164 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 4 | 286 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Almere City FC | 3 | 216 | 2 | 2 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levi García Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €4.0M | €13.0M | rose |
| Mounir Chouiar Super Lig · 2023 | 24 | €3.2M | €3.0M | flat |
| Othmane Boussaid Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €2.3M | €1.2M | fell |
| Stefanos Athanasiadis Super League 1 · 2015 | 27 | €4.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Vyacheslav Grulev Premier Liga · 2022 | 23 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Youness Mokhtar Eredivisie · 2015 | 24 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Sory Kaba Superliga · 2021 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
| Aleksandr Sobolev Premier Liga · 2022 | 25 | €8.0M | €7.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | FC Lorient | Utrecht | €2.8M | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Utrecht | FC Lorient | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 23 Jul 2024 | FC Lorient | Utrecht | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Almere City | FC Lorient | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 21 Aug 2023 | FC Lorient | Almere City | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 5 Sept 2022 | Guingamp | FC Lorient | €2.7M | €400k |
| 23 Jul 2020 | EA Guingamp U19 | Guingamp | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | US Torcy U17 | EA Guingamp U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Créteil Youth | US Torcy U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Champigny Jgd. | Créteil Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.